Escalating Conflict in Sudan
ISTANBUL — The ongoing civil war in Sudan is creating opportunities for Iranian influence to expand across Africa, posing a significant threat to the U.S.-backed military and economic framework being established in the Middle East.
The October capture of El Fasher by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has drawn Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Israel into a complex proxy conflict that could alter the balance of power in the Red Sea. The RSF, which was part of the former Sudanese government’s paramilitary forces, boasts an estimated 100,000 troops.
The RSF and the rival Sudanese army have been engaged in fierce combat for control over this resource-rich nation since their joint coup in 2023. Both factions have faced accusations of committing atrocities; however, reports detailing mass killings and kidnappings attributed to the RSF following their takeover of El Fasher have shocked global observers.
On Wednesday, President Trump indicated a desire to intervene in order to halt the violence. The top U.N. humanitarian official described areas controlled by the RSF as “crime scenes.” In response to these developments, new sanctions were imposed on the RSF by the European Union on Thursday.
The UAE has been accused of providing funding and arms to the RSF while Sudan’s army increasingly relies on weaponry from Iran. This situation has created a complicated proxy battle between Iran and U.S. allies who are attempting to navigate a morally acceptable stance amidst this conflict.
The military relationship between Iran and Sudan’s regular army has strengthened as the RSF acquires more advanced arms from Europe and Russia. Drone shipments and precision-guided munitions are now present in territories controlled by Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
The support from Abu Dhabi for General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), leader of the RSF, has resulted in an unusual coalition: Iran alongside Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey backing Sudan’s state military while simultaneously arming a militia accused of genocide in Darfur.
Massad Boulos, Trump’s envoy for Africa, labeled conditions in El Fasher as “absolutely unacceptable,” referring to it as “the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis” while urging both factions to agree on a three-month humanitarian ceasefire. Despite these calls for peace, neither side has committed to ending hostilities.
The strategic location of Sudan makes it impossible for regional powers like Iran to be overlooked. Haim Koren, former Israeli ambassador to Egypt stated that normalization efforts with Sudan were not merely symbolic but rather strategic due to its control over vital trade routes.
Iran previously utilized Sudan’s Red Sea coast until 2015 when ties were severed due to alignment with Saudi Arabia against Iranian interests. The current civil war presents Tehran with an unexpected chance to re-establish its foothold.
Sudan’s extensive coastline allows Iran operational freedom without interference from U.S., Saudi or Israeli naval forces. Analysts suggest this could provide Tehran with alternative routes for supporting Houthi operations that threaten global shipping lanes.
